Thursday, November 26, 2020

Ethiopia: GERD DAM and the failure of a transactional foreign policy

Addis Ababa (HAN) September 15. 2020. Public Diplomacy and Regional Stability Initiatives News. Monitoring Regional Issues. On August 27, Foreign Policy reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was considering suspending $130 million worth of US aid to Ethiopia. Within less than a week, the US on the orders of President Trump suspended some of the aid, in the hope that such action would cajole Addis Ababa to reach an agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with Egypt. The view from Washington DC is that they want an agreement reached before Ethiopia continues to fill the dam.

The American decision shows a limited understanding of the GERD, Horn of Africa geopolitics, and that a transactional foreign has many limitations. Fundamentally, the decision does not further American interests in the region, but rather weakens it as Ethiopia can easily find others to make up the shortfall.

Construction for the $4.8 billion the GERD begun in April 2011. The Dam, which draws water from the Blue Nile, should hold 74 billion cubic metres. It is expected to generate up to 6,000 megawatts of power and in doing so address Ethiopia’s energy insecurity: around 60 million Ethiopians have no access to electricity or very limited access. Moreover, the Ethiopian government was also hoping to export energy to some of its neighbours thus earning the country valuable foreign currency. Thus, the dam has become an important national symbol, with popular musicians releasing songs exalting the construction and what it would mean to Ethiopians ordinary people, as the government sold the dam to the people as the great panacea for Ethiopia’s energy insecurity.

The GERD as expected has become a major issue, primarily for Egypt, which relies extensively on the Nile. Egyptians are concerned that the dam would siphon off much of the water that Egypt needs for its burgeoning population, agriculture, and industry. There have been many attempts at negotiation, some sponsored by the United States and some by the African Union. But to date, no resolution to the dispute has been reached in part because Egypt cannot accept that it does not have full control over the Nile. Conversely, for Ethiopia, the GERD is the great hope for a better tomorrow.

One reason why the US decision is unlikely to encourage the Ethiopian government to change course stems from the recognition that Abiy Ahmed Ali is under enormous domestic pressures and compromising on the dam would only weaken his position. Abiy is dealing with anger at the way his government went about postponing the federal elections, leading to accusations of authoritarianism. Abiy is also contending with anger at the way the security services responded to the killing of musician-activist, Hachalu Hundessa, on 29, including the decision to arrest and detain thousands of people, many of whom are opponents of the government. There is also unhappiness with how the government has dealt with the Tigray Regional Zone, the centre of Abiy’s key political opponents, the Tigray for Democracy and Justice Party, and its demand to hold a regional election, which it has since held. The conflict with the Tigray stems in part from Tigray’s unhappiness of losing political power, which they have held since 1991, even though they account for about 5% of the population. The push for regional election emphasises growing demand by Ethiopia’s many ethnic groups for more power at the expense of the federation.

Another major challenge for Abiy is the state of the economy. He came to power on the back of an ambitious economic policy aimed at liberalising such sectors as telecommunication and finance but theCOVID-19 pandemic has derailed much of that program. Some of the measures adopted to combat the spread have had a dire impact on key sectors primarily agriculture but also construction. For example, the travel restrictions have affected the agriculture sector, already under pressure from desert locust infestations and perpetual underinvestment. It was therefore unsurprising to learn that in a World Bank survey many Ethiopians expressed great apprehension for the future.

Several things are working in Abiy’s favour as we look at the American decision to suspend the aid and why it is unlikely to dissuade the Ethiopians from reaching an agreement first with Egypt. The first is China. Sino-Ethiopian relations, which began in 1970, have always been strong. Early onBeijing recognised Ethiopia’s geostrategic importance whether in respect to its African policy (Addis Ababa is home to the African Union) or to Beijing’s revisionist foreign policy as symbolised by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Ethiopia was quick to sign up to the BRI, seeing it as a way to gain needed capital and expertise as successive governments seek to develop Ethiopia. China and Chinese companies provide capital for the construction of the Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway, it constructs roads, a national sports stadium, and it has supported the construction of the dam. China has also provided humanitarian and specifically COVID-19 assistance to Ethiopia, including helping Ethiopia manufacture its COVID-19 test kits instead of relying on others. These are just some of the measures undertaken by Beijing to ensure that it has a strong footing in Ethiopia. Abiy knows he can rely on Beijing, which wants access to one of Africa’s fastest growing population.

A second thing working for Abiy is that he does have international support. Soon after coming to power in 2018, he reached out to Ethiopia’s long time enemy Eritrea and made important concessions such as giving up the village of Badme, which was awarded to Eritrea in 2002, without any preconditions. This led him to a Noble Peace Prize. Abiy has also benefitted from having a progressive domestic policy including releasing countless high-profile political prisoners.

The US decision, which allegedly was made by President Trump, is shortsighted because the size of the aid is relatively small to entice Addis Ababa to change course. Moreover, the cut will not affect US humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia, which has remained unaffected as USAID recognises over 16 million people need aid because of COVID-19 and other crises such as the locust infestation and climate change.

Secondly, Abiy knows that slowing down the filling up process or making significant concessions to Egypt would infuriate many Ethiopians who are looking to the dam as a panacea and the beginning of a golden tomorrow.

Thirdly, Abiy has support from key riparian states who are supportive of the dam and see the potential for their energy security. There is more distaste towards Egyptian attitude, with many of the affected states taking the view that Egypt has bullied the region for too long. Concomitantly, having President Trump in your corner when it comes to African affairs is not necessarily a good thing, as many on the continent, which he has never visited,remember the disparaging comments he has made towards the continent and its people.

Fourthly, Abiy knows that he can easily replace American aid, as countries recognize Ethiopia’s importance as it is a huge country, with over 100 million people many of whom are young and who look to benefit from the fruits of industrialization. Moreover, it is believed that President Trump intervened because he supports President al-Sisi, an authoritarian leader. In other words, the US President is preferring an authoritarian, unpopular leader over a democratically elected popular leader.

To have a transnational foreign policy one need to have leverage but in this specific instance, the United States has seriously overestimated its leverage, thus limiting its ability to affect change and becoming less relevant in the Horn of Africa, at a time when China is cementing its presence in this crucial region.

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Go’aannada ku Aaddan Maamulka Doorashooyinka In la kala diro dhammaan guddiyada doorashooyinka ee heer Federaal iyo Dowlad Goboleedba, guddiyadana lagu soo magacaabo wadatashi iyo wadarogol dhinacyada ay qusayso maamulka doorashada ee kala ah Dowladda Federaalka ah, dowlad goboleedyada iyo Golaha Midowga Murashaxiinta, maadaama aan magacaabistooda la waafajin shuruudihii iyo . In Guddoomiyaha Aqalka Sare ee Baarlamaanka Federaalka Soomaaliya Senator Cabdi Xaashi Cabdullaahi, haatanna ka mid ah hoggaanka ugu sarreeya ee dalka isla markaasna ka soo jeeda Gobollada Waqooyi uu sharciyad buuxda u haysto in uu magacaabo xubnaha gobolladaasi ku metelaya Guddiyada Doorashada iyo Xallinta Khilaafaadka ee labada Heer ee Federaal Wuxuu kaloo Goluhu dalbanayaa in doorashada xubnaha Baarlamaanka ee ka soo jeeda Somaliland lagu qabto Teendhada Ciidamada Cirka ee Afisyoone, iyadoo ay goobjoog ahaanayaan wakiillo ka socda Murashaxiinta, beesha caalamka, Booliska Soomaaliyeed iyo kan AMISOM. In magacaabista xubnaha beelaha Banaadiriga ah ku metelaya guddiyada doorashada loo madax banneeyo odoyaasha dhaqanka iyo waxgaradka beelahaas, doorashadoodana lagu qabto Afisyoone, goobjoogna ka ahaadaan wakiillo ka socda Murashaxiinta, beesha caalamka, booliska Soomaaliyeed iyo kan AMISOM. In Dowladda Federaalka ah ay si deg deg ah ugala soo laabato maamulka sharci darida iyo ciidamada ay geysay Gobolka Gedo, si loo ilaayo midnimada Dowlad Goboleedka Jubbaland, maamulkana dib ula wareego deegaanka, si ay ugu suuragasho qabashada doorashada xubnaha Baarlamaanka Federaalka ah ee deegaankaas sida ku xusan heshiiska doorashooyinka. In xulista ergada ay iska kaashadaan odayaasha dhaqanka iyo bulshada rayidka ee beesha kursiga iska leh, dowrka Dawlad Goboleedyadana ku ekaado diiwaan gelinta sida uu dhigayo heshiiskii siyaasadeed ee Golaha Wadatashiga Qaranka ee uu Baarlamaanku wax ka bedelista ku sameeyey. In madaxda dowladaha xubnaha ka ah Dowladda Federaalka Soomaaliya aysan guda gelin qabashada doorasho aan la isku waafaqsaneyn iyo in ay masaafo isku mid ah u jirsadaan murashaxiinta, taageeradoodana aysan ku gaar yeelin murashax gooni ah. In loo hawlgalo xaqiijinta qoondada haweenka ee 30% ah. 8. In la helo korjoogto ka socota ururrada bulshada rayidka ah, ururrada qareennada, xubno ka socda Golaha Murashaxiinta iyo wakiillada beesha caalamka si loo xaqiijiyo hufnaanta doorashooyinka. In Guddoonka iyo xubnaha Labada Gole ee Baarlamaanka Federaalka Soomaaliya (BFS) ay qaataan kaalintooda ku aaddan ilaalinta ku dhaqanka Dastuurka KMG ah iyo dhammaan shuruucda kale ee dalka gaar ahaan qodobbada khuseeya arrimaha doorashooyinka qaranka. Go’aannada ku Aaddan Ammaanka Doorashooyinka: In Madaxda Dowladda Federaalka ah ay ka saaraan dhammaan ciidamada qalabka sida ku lug yeelashada howlaha doorashooyinka, sida uu dhigayo qodobka 127-aad ee Dastuurka. In iyadoo la cuskanayo mabaadi’da ku xusan dhammaan faqrooyinka qodobka 127-aad ee Dastuurka KMG ah, uu taliyaha Hay’adda Nabadsugidda & Sirdoonka Qaranka Mudane Fahad Yaasiin Xaaji Daahir uu banneeyo xilka hoggaanka NISA, maadaama uu yahay madaxa ololaha dib-u-doorashada murashaxa madaxweyne ee xilkiisu sii dhammaanayo Mudane Maxamed Cabdullaahi Farmaajo, si loo sugo dhex-dhexaadnimada hay’adda NISA. In amniga doorashooyinka ay sugaan ciidanka Booliska Soomaaliyeed iyo kuwa AMISOM oo keliya, lagana fogeeyo Ciidanka Milateriga iyo Nabadsugidda. 13.In uu joojiyo madaxweynaha uu xilkiisa sii dhammaanayo Mudane Maxamed Cabdullahi Farmaajo ku takri-falka dhaqaalaha dalka iyo in uu u adeegsado hantida Ummadda, xaafiisyada Dowladda, ciidanka iyo shaqaalaha ka tirsan Dowladda Federaalka ku daneysiga ololihiisa doorashooyinka. Go’aanno Guud Goluhu wuxuu ka niyad jabsan yahay in Dowladda Federaalka ay ku fashilantay xaqiijinta himilooyinkii shacabka ee qabashada doorasho qof iyo cod ah. xubnaha Goluhu waxay mustaqbalka xil iska saarayaan xaqiijinta doorasho qof iyo cod ah si shacabka loogu celiyo awoodda. Goluhu wuxuu isku raacay dhismaha GUDDIGA BADBAADINTA DOORASHOOYINKA QARANKA oo ay xubno ka yihiin qaybaha kala duwan ee bulshada sida ganacsatada, odayaasha, ururrada bulshada rayidka ah, culimada, haweenka, iyo dhallinyarada si loo xaqiijiyo samata bixinta dalka iyo qabashada doorashooyin heshiis lagu yahay, si xilliga kala guurka ah xasiloonida, amniga iyo midnimada dalka loo ilaaliyo. 16.Goluhu wuxuu ugu baaqayaa madaxda Dowladda Federaalka ah in ay ilaaliyaan xasiloonida dalka, kana fogaadaan garaacista durbaanka colaadda iyo ficillada abuuraya nacaybka iyo xasaradda. 17.Goluhu wuxuu ugu baaqayaa madaxda Dowladda Federaalka in ay furan saaxadda siyaasadeed, ogolaadaan xorriyada saxaafadda oo ay ku jirto warbaahinta qaranka, caburintana ka daayaan hoteellada lagu qabanayo dhaq-dhaqaaqyada siyaasadeed ee la xariira ololaha doorashooyinka. Haddii Dowladda Federaalka ah ay qaaddo tallaabo lagu taabbagelinayo doorasho aan heshiis lagu ahayn, wuxuu Goluhu caddaynayaa in isaga oo kaashanaya qaybaha kala duwan ee bulshada iyo dawlad goboleedyada uu ka shaqeynayo hannaan doorasho oo dalka lagu badbaadinayo si uusan u dhicin firaaq awoodeed iyo mid dastuuri ah. Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Howgalka Millatari ee Ka Dhanka ah Gobolka Tigray oo Galay Marxaladdii Ugu Dambeysay

ADDIS ABABA(HALBEEG)-Ra’iisul wasaaraha Itoobiya, Abiy Axmed ayaa sheegay in ciidamada dowladdu ay guda galeen marxaladdii ugu dambeysay ee howlgalka millatari ee ka dhanka ah gobolka Tigray ee waqooyiga dalka Itoobiya. War qoraal ah oo uu soo saaray ra’iisal wasaaraha ayu uku sheegay in ay taxaddar dheeri ah ka yeelan doonaan nus milyanka ruux eek u nool magaalada Maqalle ee caasimadda gobolka Tigray sidoo kalena ay daryeel u fidin doonaan dadka rayidka ah. Mudane Abiy ayaa dadweynaha magaaladaas ugu baaqay in aysan ka soo bixin guryahooda. Waxaa kale oo uu ra’iisul wasaaruhu sheegay in kumannaan ka tirsan xoogagga TPLF ay 72-kii saacadood isu soo dhiibeen ciidamada dowladda hase yeeshee jabhadda ayaanan wax jawaab ah ka soo saarin sheegashada xukuumadda. Arbacadii shalay ayay ku ekeyd muddo 72 saacadood ah oo ay xukuumaddu u qabatay jabhadda in ay isa soo dhiibaan. Ra’iisul wasaaraha ayaa shalay si kulul ugu gacanseyray in beesha caalamku ay soo farageliso arrimaha gudaha Itoobiya. Qaramada Midoobay ayaa xukuumadda Itoobiya ka codsatay in ay gabbed siiyaan dadka rayidka ah eek u nool magaalada Maqalle ka hor inta uusan billaabanin weerarka ay ciidamada dowladdu ku doonayaan in ay ku qabsadaan magaaladaas Post Views:22 Related Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Six men accused of murder in Somaliland executed

FILE PHOTO GOOBJOOG NEWS| SOMALILAND: Six men who had been sentenced to death by a court in Somaliland were Thursday morning executed. The six had been condemned to death for murder and subsequent appeals upheld by the courts. The six are: Yasin Mohamed Yusuf, Sharmarke Sahal Oogle, Qulle Mohamed Elmi and Khalid Abdi Haydar The others are Khadar Mohamed Warsame and Abdikarim Mohamed Mahdi. Six other people were executed in January for murder in Somaliland.